Dallas Mavericks (62-37) vs. Boston Celtics (76-20)
June 6, 2024 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Boston Celtics -6.5; Over/Under: 214.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics meet Thursday in Game 1 of the NBA Finals at the TD Garden. Here’s a Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks have won 8 of their last 10 games and are in the NBA Finals for the first time since the 2010-11 season. The Mavs are 7-2 SU on the road in these NBA playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 107.9 points on 47.1 percent shooting and allowing 103.9 points on 44.5 percent shooting. Luka Doncic is averaging 28.8 points and 8.8 assists, while Kyrie Irving is averaging 22.8 points and 3.9 rebounds. PJ Washington is the third double-digit scorer and Derrick Jones Jr. is grabbing 3.6 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 37.2 percent from beyond the arc and 72.8 percent from the free throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 35.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.1 rebounds per game.
Boston Celtics Betting Preview
The Boston Celtics have won 7 straight games and are in the NBA Finals for the second time in the last 3 years. The Celtics are 6-2 SU at home in these NBA playoffs. The Boston Celtics are averaging 111.4 points on 48 percent shooting and allowing 101.3 points on 46.7 percent shooting. Jayson Tatum is averaging 26 points and 10.4 rebounds, while Jaylen Brown is averaging 25 points and 6.1 rebounds. Derrick White is the third double-digit scorer and Jrue Holiday is grabbing 5.6 rebounds. The Boston Celtics are shooting 36.8 percent from beyond the arc and 79.7 percent from the free throw line. The Boston Celtics are allowing 33.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.7 rebounds per game.
Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
The Mavericks will continue to be without Greg Brown III, while Olivier-Maxence Prosper has been upgraded to questionable with an ankle injury. Prosper has played just one minute for the Mavs in these playoffs. For the Celtics, Luke Kornet is probable despite a wrist injury and Kristaps Porzingis is probable despite a calf injury. Porzingis is expected to play his first game since April 29.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Mavericks have won each of their last five playoff games as road underdogs.
- The Celtics have lost each of their last two NBA Finals games as favorites.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last 10 Thursday games.
- The Celtics have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games following a win.
Boston Celtics Player Facts
- Al Horford ranks 1st amongst qualified Centers for 3P% (41.9%) this season.
- Jaylen Brown ranks T3rd in the league for fast break points (310) this season.
Dallas Mavericks Player Facts
- Daniel Gafford ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (72.5%) this season.
- P.J. Washington is one of only three players to have scored 40+ points off the bench in a game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Celtics rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+11.3).
- The Celtics rank T1st in the league for blocks per game this season (6.6).
- The Mavericks rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (4.0).
- The Mavericks rank 2nd in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (39.5).
Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
The Boston Celtics are going to be favored for obvious reasons, as they were the best team in the regular season and have won 7 straight games in these playoffs. At home, the Celtics are going to get the benefit of the doubt. However, the Celtics are winning, but have failed to cover 5 of their last 6 games. The Celtics have allowed teams to hang around and aren’t getting the job done with these big numbers.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks have played some of their best ball in these playoffs on the road, and they’ve outright won 5 straight games as an underdog. As I’ve said all playoffs, if Kyrie and Luka are going to play like Kyrie and Luka, the Mavs are valuable from a betting perspective, especially as underdogs. Luka has had a week to get his knee right. Give me the points with the Mavs in a game they’ve shown they can win outright when their stars are leading the charge.
