Miami Heat (22-20) vs. Golden State Warriors (24-19)
January 19, 2026 10:00 pm EDT
The Line: Golden State Warriors -6.5; Over/Under: 238.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Heat pay a visit to the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center on Monday night. Here’s a Warriors vs Heat Prediction. This article will include a Warriors vs Heat Pick.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Miami Heat have been struggling for form lately as they’ve lost four of their last six games overall, but they will be eager to build some momentum after outlasting the league-leading Thunder in a thrilling 122-120 win on Saturday. Bam Adebayo led the team with 30 points, 12 rebounds and four assists, Norman Powell added 19 points while Pelle Larsson chipped in with 16 points. As a team, the Heat shot a miserly 37 percent from the field but they shot 20 of 40 from the 3-point line. This was enough to keep them within striking distance until the fourth quarter where they closed the final 57.5 seconds on a crucial 5-0 run thanks to Andrew Wiggins who drained the game winner with 31.7 seconds remaining.
Golden State Warriors Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors have been on a tear as they’ve won 11 of their last 15 games overall and they will be gunning for a fourth straight victory after running past the Hornets in a 136-116 win on Saturday. De’Anthony Melton led the team in scoring with 24 points on eight of 16 shooting off the bench, Draymond Green tallied 20 points with six assists while Brandin Podziemski chipped in with 16 points, six rebounds and seven assists. As a team, the Warriors shot a healthy 55 percent from the field and 23 of 52 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 39 points in the first quarter to jump out to a double-digit lead. They were ruthless as they exploded for 43 points in the third quarter to put the game to bed early.
Why the Golden State Warriors will win
- The Warriors have won 12 of their last 13 home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Heat have lost seven of their last eight road games against Warriors teams that held a winning record.
- The Warriors have covered the spread in eight of their last nine night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games on the first leg of a back-to-back against Western Conference opponents.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Heat have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Warriors.
- The Warriors have lost four of their last five games on the first leg of a back-to-back.
- The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games against Heat teams that held a winning record.
- The Heat have covered the spread in five of their last six games against the Warriors.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the last six games between the Heat and Warriors have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Heat’s last six games against the Warriors following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
Golden State Warriors Player Facts
- Stephen Curry ranks 1st amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per game (4.5) this season.
- Al Horford has made the most free-throws without a miss (11) of any player in the league this season.
Miami Heat Player Facts
- Kel’el Ware is the only qualified player in the league to be leading their team in blocks per game (1.1) and three-point shooting percentage (41.7%) this season.
- Andrew Wiggins is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Warriors rank 1st in the league for three-point field goals made per game this season (16.2).
- The Warriors rank 1st in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (44.4).
- The Heat rank 30th in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.1%).
- The Heat rank 1st in the league for field goal attempts per game this season (93.3).
Warriors vs Heat Prediction
The Heat are still missing Tyler Herro but they expect to have Davion Mitchell and Jaime Jacquez Jr back in action, while the Warriors are still missing Seth Curry, De’Anthony Melton and Gui Santos. The Heat haven’t been playing anywhere near their best lately, but they would’ve taken plenty of confidence from their hard fought win over the Thunder in their last outing. In contrast, the Warriors have quietly been one of the form teams in the league and they are coming off a massive win over the Hornets, so it’s no surprise to see them open as favorites at home. If the Heat play like they did on Saturday, they can certainly pull off the upset in this spot. But they’ve been too inconsistent so far this season, so I would rather stick with the more reliable Warriors to get the job done at home in this spot.
