Houston Rockets (37-21) vs. Miami Heat (31-29)
February 28, 2026 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Heat +3; Over/Under:
(Get latest betting odds)
The Houston Rockets and Miami Heat meet Saturday in NBA action at the Kaseya Center. Here’s a Heat vs. Rockets prediction. This article will include a Heat vs. Rockets pick.
Houston Rockets Betting Preview
The Houston Rockets beat the Magic and Kings, and they play the Wizards next. The Rockets have won 4 of their last 5 games.
The Houston Rockets are averaging 114.7 points on 47.5 percent shooting and allowing 109.1 points on 45.5 percent shooting. Kevin Durant is averaging 26.1 points and 5.4 rebounds, while Alperen Sengun is averaging 20.4 points and 9.2 rebounds. Amen Thompson is the third double-digit scorer, and Jabari Smith Jr. is grabbing 6.8 rebounds. The Houston Rockets are shooting 37.2 percent from beyond the arc and 76 percent from the free-throw line. The Houston Rockets are allowing 34.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 48.3 rebounds per game.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Miami Heat lost to the Bucks and the 76ers, and they play the Nets next. The Heat have won 4 of their last 7 games.
The Miami Heat are averaging 119.9 points on 46.3 percent shooting and allowing 117.2 points on 45.8 percent shooting. Norman Powell is averaging 22.5 points and 3.6 rebounds, while Tyler Herro is averaging 21.2 points and 3.5 assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer, and Andrew Wiggins is grabbing 5.1 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 36.1 percent from beyond the arc and 78.5 percent from the free-throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 35 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.3 rebounds per game.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Rockets have lost each of their last seven games against Heat teams that held a winning record.
- The Heat have won nine of their last 10 games against the Rockets.
- The Heat have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
- The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games at Kaseya Center following a win.
Why the Houston Rockets will win
- The Rockets have won each of their last 10 games against Southeast Division opponents following a win.
- The Heat have lost five of their last six games against Southwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
- The Rockets have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four day games at Kaseya Center.
Total Points: Facts
- Eight of the Heat’s last nine day games at Kaseya Center following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of the Rockets’ last five games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Heat vs Rockets Injury Report
The Heat will be without Terry Rozier and Nikola Jović. Norman Powell is questionable.
The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr., Jae’Sean Tate, and Steven Adams.
Heat vs Rockets Prediction
As I’ve said in past Heat write-ups, I have little use for or confidence in this team. The Heat did nothing at the deadline to improve, and we’ve seen them recently lose to the tanking Jazz and the Bucks without their best player. The Heat is going nowhere fast. The Rockets have a clear talent edge and they’ve put together three straight wins over lesser competition. I expect no different here. We’re laying a single bucket. No problem for me. Give me the Rockets.
