Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) vs. Phoenix Suns (45-37)
April 27, 2026 9:30 pm EDT
The Line: Phoenix Suns +10.5; Over/Under: 213.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Phoenix Suns duke it out in Game 4 of the 1st Round at the Mortgage Matchup Center on Monday night. Here’s a Suns vs. Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Suns vs. Thunder Pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder will have their sights set on completing the sweep after blowing past the Suns in a 121-109 road win in Game 3 on Saturday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander barely missed all night as he led the team with 42 points and eight assists on 15 of 18 shooting. Ajay Mitchell added 15 points on just five of 20 shooting, while Alex Caruso chipped in with 13 points off the bench. As a team, the Thunder shot 49 percent from the field and 12 of 37 from the 3-point line as they got off to a slow start and trailed for most of the first half, but once they got into their groove, they took the lead late in the second quarter and pushed the margin out to 15 points, which was more than enough to hold off a misfiring Suns squad. Check out tonight’s game between the Timberwolves and Nuggets.
Phoenix Suns Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns were able to put up a stiffer challenge in Game 3, but they were always playing from behind once they lost the lead heading into halftime. Dillon Brooks led the team with 33 points on 11 of 21 shooting; Jalen Green added 26 points with six assists, while Devin Booker chipped in with 16 points and seven assists. As a team, the Suns shot 44 percent from the field and 13 of 41 from the 3-point line as they did a much better job of staying within striking distance all game but they had no answer for the Thunder’s Gilgeous-Alexander, who was the difference in what could’ve been a close game. Grayson Allen was able to make his return to the lineup but finished with just seven points on two of eight shooting off the bench.
Why the Phoenix Suns will win
- The Suns have won each of their last six games following a home loss.
- The Thunder have lost five of their last six playoff games as road favorites following a win.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight playoff road games following a win.
- The Suns have covered the spread in four of their last five night games against Northwest Division opponents.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 11 Western Conference First Round games.
- The Suns have lost each of their last nine playoff games.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 road games against Pacific Division opponents.
- The Suns have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 playoff games as underdogs.
Total Points: Facts
- Seven of the Suns’ last eight playoff home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Thunder’s last eight night games have gone OVER the total points line.
Phoenix Suns Player Facts
- Devin Booker has scored 30+ points in three consecutive appearances—the equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
- Collin Gillespie ranks 19th amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per game (2.9) this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only player in the league to have recorded 15+ assists without a turnover in a game this season.
- Cason Wallace ranks 1st in the Western Conference amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.9) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Suns have suffered the largest comeback loss when leading through Q3 this season—led by 18 points vs. the Hawks on November 16.
- The Suns rank 30th in the league for Q4 points per game this season (25.8).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+11.1).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent field goal percentage this season (43.7%).
Suns vs Thunder Prediction
The Thunder have ruled out Jalen Williams again, while the Suns have ruled out Mark Williams, with Jordan Goodwin upgraded to questionable. There is every chance that the Thunder drop their intensity and look past the Suns in this game, but I still think the Thunder would get the win on the road as long as Gilgeous-Alexander has another big game. The Suns are playing to keep their season alive so I am sure they will come out swinging, but if the Thunder start strong and take the lead at halftime, I can see this game being a complete blowout. I think we will see a big game from the Suns’ Devin Booker, but it won’t be nearly enough to avoid another double-digit loss to the Thunder.
