The Miami Heat defense impacts the Celtics offense like no other team has this season. Getting fewer looks and one-and-done trips down the floor got in the C’s heads, and this has made prop bet odds fly all over the map. The Heat on the other hand, seem to get better individual numbers when the Celtics are hitting shots because they push the ball more, in an effort to climb back in it, rather than burn clock.
So now that the Celtics aren’t dealing with the pressure of a sweep… should we expect better individual numbers for both teams and more prop bets going over? Let's take a look at today’s best Celtics/Heat prop bets!
Jayson Tatum Prop Bet: Over 30.5 points
Jayson Tatum registered a season-high (including the playoffs) 11 assists in the most recent 110-97 win over Miami. He was efficient from the field (50.0%) but attempted only 16 shots, his fewest attempts of the ECF series and the second-fewest of the postseason. It was the first time in the series that Tatum wasn’t the Celtics’ top scorer, but that shouldn’t be the case today in Game 6. The four-time All-Star scored more than 30 points in two of five games in this series but struggled from beyond the arc, shooting only 29%.
The C’s will need Tatum to go to the foul line frequently and score some easy ones, something he did successfully in the opening two games of the series (22 free throws made opposite just six in the last three games). The last time he faced Miami on the road, Tatum scored 33 points. I am looking for a similar scenario on Saturday. Look for the version of Jason Tatum who attacks the rim and gets to the line.
And if the Celtics do have a bad showing and are down 20 in the 4th, there is no reason to sit the starters or worry about extended minutes. Expect the starters to play even if they are down big.
My Prop bet Pick: Tatum over 30.5 points
Jaylen Brown Under 22.5 points
The Boston Celtics fans have been disappointed with Jaylen Brown’s playoff performance against the Heat... And rightfully so. Brown failed to score more than 22 points in five games and he reached 50.0% from the floor only once, in Game 5.
Brown did record five steals in the previous two games after going without a single steal or block in the opening three contests. However, he was held below 18 points in three out of five games. The second star of the C's needs to step up and help Tatum offensively, and although he could chip in a 20 spot in Game 6, the recent data suggests he will be held below 23 points. Jaylen was monstrous against Miami in three regular-season duels, averaging 33.7 ppg, but this is the playoffs and Miami knows how to defend him.
With near even money odds to make this bet I have to make my prop bet pick: Jaylen Brown under 22.5 points
Marcus Smart Over 5.5 assists
Boston’s point guard is averaging exactly 6.0 assists per contest in the ECF series. He had only two in the previous game but did score a series-high 23 points and tied the season-high in steals with five. Smart didn’t spend as much time on the floor though, logging just 30 minutes. The 2022 DOY had over 5 assists on three occasions during this series. In game 1, Smart recorded 11 dimes and had 6+ in two of the last three games.
As we mentioned we are looking for a big scoring outing from Tatum which bodes well for Smart’s assist numbers. This is my favorite prop bet for game 6!
My Prop bet Pick: Marcus Smart Over 5.5 assists
Jimmy Butler PTS+ASSTS Over 34.5
Jimmy Butler displayed a forgettable performance in Game 5 of the ECF. He scored only 14 points, a playoff-low, and had just ten attempts from the field (also playoff-low). After combining for 42 points and assists in Game 1, Butler failed to combine for more than 34 in the next four games. However, the Heat will need him badly on Saturday, and I am predicting Jimmy will respond with a big offensive showing. The Celtics will probably double him in the midrange, but look for Butler to find an open teammate and get a minimum of five assists.
Butler managed to get 5 dimes in each game this series, averaging 5.8 assists per contest. Butler is scoring 6.4 free throws per in this ECF series. We are counting on more trips to the line in a game the Celtics look to speed up. I am backing Jimmy to bounce back in Game 6.
This is not the strongest play at -125 at most sportsbooks. Keeping an eye on the odds across the market is smart. We need Jimmy to score about 29 points here to cover.
My Prop bet Pick: Jimmy Butler PTS+AST Over 34.5
Bam Adebayo to Record 1+ steals
Adebayo failed to register a steal in just four of 16 playoff games so far and in one of the five in this Celtics series. He also had at least a steal in each of four H2H duels in the regular season (two thefts in three of those games), which makes me back this as the slam dunk of best player props for Game 6.
Bam stole the ball twice in Game 5, and considering how the Heat are playing defense, especially at home, I don’t doubt that Adebayo will add a minimum of one steal this time out.
With a steal in 75% of his playoff games, the value is there at -180. The key to being up here long term is getting the best price. -160 at Fandual is a great bet.
My Prop bet Pick: Bam Adebayo to Record 1+ steals
Kevin Love Over 4.5 points
Kevin Love is not the player he used to be, but his experience makes him a valuable part of this Heat squad. He didn’t log more than 16 minutes per game in this series but managed to score more than 4 points in four of five games. On average, Love is making a three-pointer per contest in the series, and I expect he will hit at least one on Saturday.
Earlier in the season, when he played for the Cleveland Cavaliers, Love faced the Celtics twice and scored nine and then eight points, respectively. In other words, the five-time All-Star scored 5+ points in six of seven games against Boston this year. Kevin even scored five points in a blowout Game 3 win when he played under five minutes.
At -120 and even at -140, this is a value play!
My Prop bet Pick: Kevin Love Over 4.5 points