Thunder vs Heat Prediction 2/12/25 NBA Picks Today

The Miami Heat invade the Paycom Center to do battle with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night. Here’s a Thunder vs Heat Prediction. This article will include a Thunder vs Heat Pick.

The Miami Heat have been in a rut as they’ve lost four of their last six games overall and they will be hoping to bounce back after getting trounced by the Celtics in a 103-85 loss on Monday. Bam Adebayo led the team with 22 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists, Alec Burks added 13 points while Andrew Wiggins chipped in with 11 points and five assists. As a team, the Heat shot 33 percent from the field and 11 of 45 from the 3-point line as they struggled to contain the Celtics from the start and trailed by nine points at halftime before they allowed 36 points in the third quarter to fall behind by as many as 24 points.

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been in red-hot form as they’ve won nine of their last 11 games overall and they will be gunning for a seventh straight victory after routing the Pelicans in a 137-101 win on Monday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 31 points on 10 of 20 shooting, Aaron Wiggins added 24 points on nine of 13 shooting while Jalen Williams chipped in with 16 points and five assists. As a team, the Thunder shot 51 percent from the field and a sizzling 27 of 55 from the 3-point line as they took control of the contest right away and never looked in danger after outscoring the Pelicans by 72-50 in the first half.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 15 games against Southeast Division opponents.
• The Heat have lost 11 of their last 12 games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last six games as favorites against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games on the first leg of a back-to-back.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The underdogs have won three of the Heat’s last four games.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last four games against Heat teams that held a losing record.
• The road team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between the Heat and Thunder.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games on the first leg of a back-to-back.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent points per game this season (104.8).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+13.4).
• The Heat rank 29th in the league for blocks per game this season (3.8).
• The Heat rank 2nd in the league for opponent free throws made per game this season (14.2).

The Heat have ruled out Kevin Love and they have Tyler Herro listed as questionable, while the Thunder will again be missing Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren. The Heat haven’t been able to get anything going lately and their confidence took another gut shot after getting trampled by the Celtics in their last outing, while the Thunder have continued their strong form with their ninth win in 11 outings after blowing past the Pelicans in their last outing. The line was always going to be hefty for this matchup, but it still isn’t enough to sway me from taking the Thunder at home where they are 24-3 on the season so far.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: Oklahoma City -13.5

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