The Ottawa Senators (4-5-0, 8th in Atlantic Division) are set to defend their turf against the visiting Tampa Bay Lightning (4-3-3, 6th in Atlantic Division). The Senators, eager to snap their home losing streak, will face a formidable opponent in the Lightning, who aim to electrify their season with a win. 

Lightning Looking to Conquer the Cold

The Tampa Bay Lightning stride into Ottawa with a record reflecting both their potential and their challenges. Their recent form, punctuated by a 4-2 loss to the Blue Jackets, showcases a team that, while tough to beat, is not invincible. Nikita Kucherov has been the offensive heartbeat of the Lightning with 11 points. The synergy between Kucherov and Brayden Point, who has racked up 8 eight assists, has been instrumental in Tampa Bay’s ability to maintain an average of 3.40 goals per game. This offensive firepower will be crucial as they aim to penetrate Ottawa’s defense and capitalize on strong special teams’ efficiency, with a power play percentage of 30.3 and a penalty kill at 88.5%.

In net, goaltender Jonas Johansson has stepped up in a big way, with a GAA of 2.73 and a .922 SV%. His performance has been solid in place of the injured Andrei Vasilevskiy. The defense has been a concern, as reflected in the goals against average of 3.20 per game. The Lightning must shore up their back end to provide Johansson with the support he needs to thwart the Senators’ offensive threats. The team’s penalty minutes, totaling 81, are relatively low, indicating a disciplined style of play that must be maintained to avoid giving the Senators’ scorers like Tkachuk and Tarasenko chances on the man advantage.

Tampa Bay’s recent game trends reveal a tendency for solid starts but a vulnerability in maintaining leads. The absence of key players due to injuries has tested their depth. The Lightning balances their aggressive offense and a steady defensive posture. With the special teams performing well, if they can keep the Senators’ scoring chances to a minimum and limit turnovers, they have the recipe to control the game’s pace and emerge victorious in enemy territory.

Tampa Bay Lightning Team Facts

• The Lightning have lost eight of their last nine games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last four games at Canadian Tire Centre.
• The home team has won the first period in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last eight games at Canadian Tire Centre.

Senators Seeking to Fortify Their Fortress

The Ottawa Senators, standing at 4-5-0, are preparing to host the Tampa Bay Lightning. Despite a recent 3-2 loss to the Kings, the Senators displayed solid performance with an offensive surge that saw them outshooting their opponents significantly. This aggressive shot mentality is a trend that is sure to continue, spearheaded by the likes of Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux. Tkachuk, with a team best six goals to his name, has been a consistent threat in the attacking zone with his size and skill, a formidable combination that Tampa Bay’s defense will need to pay close attention to. Giroux, with eight assists, continues to prove his worth as a playmaker, with an ability to thread passes that results often in an Ottawa goal.

However, the Senators’ goaltending duo of Joonas Korpisalo and AntonForsberg, with goals against averages of 3.19 and 3.01, respectively, face the daunting task of fortifying the net against a potent Lightning offense. The Senators’ special teams need to step up; their power play is currently converting at 22.0%, while the penalty kill sits at a concerning 75.8%. These figures must improve, as the Lightning’s power play unit is among the league’s most lethal. Ottawa’s penalty minutes are the highest in the league, a trend that could prove costly if not addressed. 

The Senators’ home record of 3-3-0 reflects a team with the capability to defend its ice but also hints at a lack of consistency. With recent injuries to key players such as Erik Brannstrom and Mark Kastelic, the roster’s depth will be tested. Players like Vladimir Tarasenko, who has been a bright spot with 10 points (3 goals, seven assists), will need to elevate their game. The Senators have shown they can score, boasting a goals-per-game average of 3.78. 

Ottawa Senators Team Facts

• The home team has won each of the last seven games between the Lightning and Senators.
• The Senators have covered the puck line in eight of their last nine games at Canadian Tire Centre following a loss.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in each of the last 14 games between the Lightning and Senators.
• The Senators have won the third period in each of their last seven games at Canadian Tire Centre following a loss.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Ottawa Senators ranks 4th in the league for goals per game this season (3.78).
• The Ottawa Senators ranks T4th in the league for shots per game this season (33.6).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning ranks 4th in the league in power play percentage this season (30.30%).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning ranks 6th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (88.46%).

David’s Pick – Ottawa Senators (-111)

The Senators have been dealt a tough hand with recent injuries, but adversity often breeds tenacity. Playing on home ice, the Senators are hungry for a win to break the skid, and strength on attack can potentially overwhelm the Lightning’s defense. The Lightning, while strong on paper, have shown cracks in their armor, particularly on the road. Expect the Senators to come out with a relentless forecheck and pressure in the neutral zone. The Lightning’s goalie, Johansson is solid yet the Sens’ offense is due for a breakout. Banking on the Senators’ motivation to defend home ice and the Lightning’s shaky away record, Ottawa is poised to take the win in what promises to be a tightly contested game.