Aryna Sabalenka vs Shelby Rogers
August 18, 2022 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Shelby Rogers / Aryna Sabalenka
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Aryna Sabalenka and Shelby Rogers meet in the first round of the 2022 tennis Western & Southern Open.
Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a straight set win over Anna Kalinskaya that took 14 games to decide. In the victory, Sabalenka won 93 percent of her first serve points and 44 percent of her second serve points. Sabalenka won 74 percent of her total service points and converted on 3 of her 8 break points. Sabalenka got 63 percent of her first serves in play and saved all 3 break points. Sabalenka won the match 5 games into the second set before Kalinskaya retired, so she played just over an hour of tennis. Sabalenka has a chance to make her 12th career quarterfinal trip in a WTA 1000 tournament. Sabalenka has lost 5 of her last 8 matches on hard court.
Shelby Rogers is coming off a walkover victory over Amanda Anisimova, as she was forced to back out due to an ankle injury. Rogers will be well rested for this match, considering her opener took a little over an hour to finish. Rogers made quick work of Sofia Kenin, winning 82 percent of her total service points and not facing a single break point. Rogers has a chance to make her second career quarterfinal in a WTA 1000 tournament. Her first was last year in Indian Wells. Rogers has 7 career wins over top-10 players, and 3 of those victories came this year. Rogers has won 5 of her last 6 matches on hard court.
Sabalenka won the only meeting against Rogers, which came this year in Hertogenbosch. The match was decided in straight sets and 19 games.
Rogers has the rest advantage, she’s having the best year of her career, and she’ll certainly get a boost from the American crowd. Still, I have to lean toward Sabalenka, the player who should dictate the majority of these points and can take the racket out of Rogers’ hands a lot of the time. Let’s not forget Sabalenka handled Rogers on grass court a couple of months ago. On hard court, you can argue Sabalenka has an even bigger edge.
I like Sabalenka to reach the quarters.