Iga Swiatek vs Ons Jabeur
September 10, 2022 4:00 pm EDT
The Line: Ons Jabeur +170 / Iga Swiatek -200
(Get latest betting odds)
Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur meet in the final of the 2022 tennis US Open.
Iga Swiatek is coming off a 3 sets win over Aryna Sabalenka that took 26 games to decide. In the victory, Swiatek won 65 percent of her first serve points and 29 percent of her second serve points. Swiatek won 55 percent of her total service points and converted on 7 of her 10 break points. Swiatek got 73 percent of her first serves in play and hit 2 aces. Swiatek has now won 9 of her last 11 matches that have gone the distance. However, Swiatek must improve her serve, especially her second serve, if she’s going to improve her chances to win this tournament. Swiatek looks to win her third career grand slam title, and she’s 2-0 in grand slam final trips. Swiatek looks to win her 10th career title overall, and she’s won each of her last 9 final appearances. Swiatek has 14 career wins over top-10 players, and 9 of those wins have come this year. Swiatek has won 8 of her last 10 matches on hard court.
Ons Jabeur is coming off a straight set win over Caroline Garcia that took 16 games to decide. In the victory, Jabeur won 83 percent of her first serve points and 57 percent of her second serve points. Jabeur won 68 percent of her total service points and converted on 4 of her 4 break points. Jabeur got 43 percent of her first serves in play and hit 8 aces. Jabeur has seen 6 of her last 8 victories be decided in straight sets. Jabeur looks to win her first career grand slam title, as she’s lost her only other final trip this year in Wimbledon. Jabeur looks to win her fourth career title overall, as she’s 3-6 in final appearances and 0-2 in final trips on hard court. Jabeur has 10 career wins over top-10 players, and 1 of those wins came this year. Jabeur has won 7 of her last 8 matches on hard court.
The first 4 meetings have been split, with Swiatek winning the most recent match this year in Rome. Jabeur won the most recent match on hard court in 2021 Cincinnati, but Swiatek won the other hard court match in 2019 Washington. Two of the 4 matches went the distance.
You can make a case for either side, as these are truly the hottest and most consistent players at the moment. Swiatek should be favored based on the body of work and her success in these big matches. However, Swiatek has been extremely spotty with her serve in her last 2 matches, and she truly loses in the semifinals if Sabalenka wasn’t an unforced error machine. Jabeur has been sharper all around, and the way she just dismantled a red-hot Garcia should get your attention. It’s not crazy to say we’re getting the player in better form at plus money.
I’ll side with Jabeur in this match based on the value of being an underdog.
