Ciryl Gane and Sergey Spivak fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 226 at Accor Arena. Gane enters this fight with a 11-2 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by knockout. Spivak enters this fight with a 16-3 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by submission.

Ciryl Gane Betting Preview

Gane has won 10 of his last 12 fights, and he’s coming off a March loss to Jon Jones. Gane is averaging 5.08 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 59 percent. Gane is averaging 0.61 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 21 percent. Gane is coming off a submission loss at UFC 285 where he landed 7 total strikes and was taken down twice. The fight wasn’t all that competitive, it was the first time Gane was finished, and he lost the UFC Heavyweight Championship. It will be interesting to see how Gane responds this time around. Gane comes from a Muay Thai background that includes a 7-0 pro record, and his combination of athleticism, power, and size makes him a scary fighter in this division. Gane works well behind his jab, throws powerful overhands and can be tough to pick up at times due to an awkward style. Gane does some of his best work in the clinch, and his cardio is impressive for his size. Gane still has to prove he can wrestle and grapple, and his takedown defense isn’t all that great. Gane has to become a more balanced fighter to take the next step. This will be Gane’s second career fight in France, his birth country.

Sergey Spivak Betting Preview

Spivak has won 6 of his last 7 fights and is coming off a February win over Derrick Lewis. He is averaging 3.79 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Spivak is averaging 5.05 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 65 percent. Spivak is coming off a submission win at UFC Fight Night 218 where he landed 36 total strikes and didn’t eat a single strike. It was a third straight win for Spivak and his seventh career submission victory. Spivak is an aggressive fighter standing up, as he throws bombs and looks to close the distance. He gets in the clinch, throws heavy knees, and he’s even better on the canvas. Spivak has a strong ground and pound. Spivak has never been submitted in his career. Polar Bear is a balanced heavyweight who has finished 14 of his 16 victories. At 28 years old, Spivak is 7-3 under the UFC banner. This will be Spivak’s first career fight in France.

H2H History 

There’s no fight history between these 2 fighters.

Randy’s Free Pick

You can make a case for Spivak in this spot, given he’s the far and away better wrestler, with above average takedown and finish ability. Gane gets taken down here and things will get interesting. With that said, Gane is the better fighter overall from an athletic standpoint, he has a 3-inch reach edge and there’s a power edge as well. Also, Gane will be eager to rebound from his last performance, and he’s fighting at home. Gane should win this fight, and I’ll lay the somewhat reasonable juice.