Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) vs. Miami Heat (37-45)
April 26, 2025 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Heat +6; Over/Under: 213
(Get latest betting odds)
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat meet Saturday in the NBA playoffs Game 3 at the Kaseya Center. Here’s a Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction. This article will include a Heat vs Cavaliers Pick.
Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview
The Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to all but end this series with a win and 3-0 lead. The Cavs have seen eight of their 18 losses come since March 16. The Cavs have seen five of their last seven losses come on the road.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are averaging 121 points on 49.4 percent shooting and allowing 106 points on 50.3 percent shooting. Donovan Mitchell is averaging 30 points and 5 assists, while Darius Garland is averaging 24 points and 7 assists. Ty Jerome is the third double-digit scorer and Evan Mobley is grabbing 6.5 rebounds. The Cleveland Cavaliers are shooting 45.5 percent from beyond the arc and 87.2 percent from the free throw line. The Cleveland Cavaliers are allowing 38.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 38 rebounds per game.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Miami Heat need a win here to have any chance of winning this series. The Heat have seen one of their last seven wins come on the road. The Heat have lost three of their last four home games.
The Miami Heat are averaging 106 points on 50.3 percent shooting and allowing 121 points on 49.4 percent shooting. Tyler Herro is averaging 27 points and 4.5 rebounds, while Davion Mitchell is averaging 18 points and 7.5 assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer, and Andrew Wiggins is grabbing 3.5 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 38.2 percent from beyond the arc and 75 percent from the free-throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 45.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 37.5 rebounds per game.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Heat have won each of their last 14 home games against the Cavaliers following a road loss.
- The Cavaliers have lost each of their last six Eastern Conference First Round road games.
- The Cavaliers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Eastern Conference First Round road games.
- The Heat have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against the Cavaliers following a loss.
Why the Cleveland Cavaliers will win
- The Cavaliers have won each of their last 17 Saturday games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a losing record.
- The Heat have lost each of their last 12 games as home underdogs following a loss.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five day games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The favorites have covered the spread in 12 of the Cavaliers’ last 14 games at Kaseya Center.
Miami Heat Player Facts
- Tyler Herro ranks T7th in the league for fast break points (290) this season.
- Bam Adebayo ranks 4th amongst qualified Forwards for rebounds per game (9.6) this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers Player Facts
- Jarrett Allen ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (70.6%) this season.
- Ty Jerome ranks 4th amongst qualified players for 3P% (43.9%) this season.
Heat vs Cavaliers Injury Report
Darius Garland is questionable for the Cavaliers with a toe injury. Garland has played 63 minutes in this series and is shooting 51.6 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from three.
The Miami Heat will be without Dru Smith, Kevin Love, Terry Rozier, and Isaiah Stevens.
Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction
If the Heat are going to make this a series, this is a must-win. The Heat had their chances to steal game 2 but couldn’t get a defensive stop. Game 1 was also closer than the score indicated, as that was a single-digit game for much of the second half. At home, you’d think the Heat get better production from their role players. Also, the Cavs are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of five or more points.
The Heat have covered seven of their last nine games as an underdog. The Heat are also getting a potential break if Garland isn’t 100 percent or even has to sit for this one. I’m grabbing the points in a game the Heat could even win outright, given how competitive they’ve been in the first two contests.
