Bowling Green vs Arkansas State Prediction 12-26-24 College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Bowling Green vs Arkansas State prediction for this College Football game on Thursday, December 26th at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. Let’s take a look at the prediction for the 68 Ventures Bowl. 

Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview

The Bowling Green Falcons are 7-5 (6-2) this season after they lost to Miami (OH) by a score of 28-12 in their last game. Bowling Green cut the deficit to 14-12 in the fourth quarter, but they allowed the last 14 points in the game for the loss. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 372-261, won the turnover battle 2-1, and went 3-14 on third down in the game. Connor Bazelak threw for 201 yards and one interception, while Malcolm Johnson Jr. caught eight passes for 75 yards in the game. 

Bowling Green also has losses against Northern Illinois, Old Dominion, Texas A&M, and Penn State, while picking up wins over Fordham, Akron, Kent State, Toledo, CMU, WMU, and Ball State. The Bowling Green offense has scored 26.8 points per game with 224.6 passing yards and 144.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.3 points against per game this season. Connor Bazelak has completed 67.1% of his passes for 2,654 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Harold Fannin Jr. has caught 100 passes for 1,342 yards and nine scores. The Falcons do have a good amount of production in the portal, but there are reports that most of those players will play in this game. 

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 7-5 (5-3) this year after they lost to Old Dominion by a score of 40-32 in their last game. Arkansas State trailed 21-14 at halftime, but they couldn’t get enough stops in the third quarter to stay in the game. The Red Wolves were out gained by a total of 549-410, lost the turnover battle 2-0, and went 8-15 on third down in the game. Jaylen Raynor threw for 261 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Corey Rucker caught eight passes for 115 yards and one score.

Arkansas State also has losses against Louisiana, Texas State, Iowa State, and Michigan, while picking up wins against Central Arkansas, Tulsa, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy, Georgia State, and ULM. The Arkansas State offense has scored 24.8 points per game with 227.1 passing yards and 159.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 32.3 points against per game this season. Jaylen Raynor has completed 61.8% of his passes for 2,562 yards, 14 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while Corey Rucker has caught 65 passes for 946 yards and five scores this year. 

Why Bowling Green will beat Arkansas State

• Arkansas State has lost each of its last four games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
• Bowling Green has won five of its last six games.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
• Bowling Green has covered the spread in six of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
• Arkansas State has lost the first half in each of its last four games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.

Why Arkansas State will beat Bowling Green

• The underdog has won four of Arkansas State’s last five Bowl games.
• Bowling Green has lost three of its last four games as a favorite at neutral venues.
• Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
• The underdog has covered the spread in nine of Bowling Green’s last 11 games.

Total Points Facts

• Six of Bowling Green’s last seven games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Arkansas State’s last three games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bowling Green ranks 8th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (2.8).
• Bowling Green ranks T11th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (207).
• Arkansas State ranks T131st among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (226.3).
• Arkansas State ranks 130th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (9.7).

Bowling Green vs Arkansas State Prediction 

Bowling Green finished the season by winning five of their last six games and they allowed just 13 points in three of their last four. The Falcons do have quite a few players in the portal, but we know at least some of them are going to play. Arkansas State has had a pretty solid offensive attack this season, but their defense has been a liability. I do think Bowling Green has a pretty big advantage in this game, but the potential for opt outs is a concern, so I am going to look at the total. Bowling Green has a great defense and their offense was not elite by any means, so I like the under here.