Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction 5/1/25 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks are visiting the New York Mets on Thursday, May 1^st at the Citi Field in the third game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction. We will examine:

The New York Mets’ recent form and player performance

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Mets

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arizona Diamondbacks

Recent betting trends in games played between the Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets game

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 21-10 record this season and are sitting in first place in the NL East. The Mets have a 13-2 home record and are 11-19 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-4 home defeat by the D-backs, ending their previous two-game winning streak. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games, and they are playing the Cardinals and the D-backs next. The Mets have a .246 batting average this season, a .325 OBP, and a .416 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 2.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 37 hits and a team-high .343 batting average. Pete Alonso leads the team with 28 RBI and 7 home runs.

Kodai Senga (R) will take the mound for the Mets, and he has a 3-1 record, 1.26 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP. He has zero earned runs in three of his last four starts, and he looked terrific in his two previous starts versus the Mets in his career, with only one earned run in 14 innings pitched.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 16-14 record this season and are sitting in the 4^th place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have an 8-6 road record and 15-11 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-3 road victory over the Mets, but are 2-5 in their last 7 games. Over is 6-1 in their last 7 games, are playing the Phillies and the Mets next. The Diamondbacks have a .244 batting average this season, a .330 OBP, and a .437 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.47 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Corbin Carroll leads the Diamondbacks with 37 hits and 23 RBI, while Jacob Perdomo leads the team in RBI with 24.

Zach Gallen (R) will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he has been struggling to start the season, as he has a 1-4 record, 5.57 ERA, and 1.39 WHIP. He has given up 3+ runs in three of his last four starts, but he has been a bit better on the road, with a 4.26 ERA.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last 10 Thursday day games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 11 games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against the Mets following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won four of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs following a road win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as home favorites against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last five Thursday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Mets’ last nine home games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as underdogs against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five games between the Diamondbacks and Mets.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (2.64).
• The Mets rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (14).
• The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the league for doubles this season (62).
• The Diamondbacks rank T3rd in the league for triples this season (6).

Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction

Both teams are tied 1-1 in wins this season, and the Mets were 4-3 against the D-backs last season. Over is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction, the Mets are coming as -160 home favorites. The Mets are rightfully favored, as they have a better record and have been the best home team in the MLB so far, with just two losses in their 15 home games. The Mets are putting their ace on the mound in Kodai Senga, while the D-backs are countering with Zach Gallen, who has not been looking good this season.

The Mets also have the 7^th-best bullpen ERA, so I expect them to have total control of this game. Take the New York Mets to bounce back and win this one at home.