Twins vs Red Sox Prediction 7-28-25 MLB Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Minnesota Twins meet Monday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Twins vs Red Sox Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will send out Richard Fitts for the start here and Fitts is 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA and 32 strikeouts this season. This will be Fitts’ second career start against the Twins. The Minnesota Twins will trot out Simeon Woods Richardson for the start here and Woods Richardson is 5-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 64 strikeouts this season. This will be Woods Richardson’s first career start against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their 4-3 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers last time out to sit at 57-50 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will head home for a series against the Houston Astros.

Red Sox Win Back-To-Back Games

Alex Bregman has 70 hits including 19 doubles along with 13 home runs and 41 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 98 hits with 15 home runs, 61 RBIs and 17 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 110 hits with 26 doubles, 12 triples, 9 home runs, 55 RBIs and a team-high 16 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell’s added 51 hits with 10 doubles, 6 homers and 21 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 20 home runs with 55 RBIs and 5 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 14 homers, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 48 RBIs and 14 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Twins have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against the Red Sox following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to rebound from a 7-2 loss at the hands of the Washington Nationals last time out to sit at 50-55 on the year. After this series, the Twins will head on the road for a division series against the Cleveland Guardians.

Twins Drop Back-To-Back Games

Byron Buxton has 92 hits along with 14 doubles, a team-high 23 home runs and 59 RBIs with 17 stolen bases and 4 triples while Carlos Correa has 88 hits with 19 doubles and Willi Castro has 74 hits with 15 doubles as well. Harrison Bader’s added 12 home runs and 38 RBIs while Buxton’s contributed a team-high 97 strikeouts as well this season. Ty France has also added 87 hits, 19 doubles, 6 home runs and 44 RBIs and Trevor Larnach’s chipped in 84 hits with 15 doubles, 13 home runs and 43 RBIs as well this season.

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have won each of their last four night games at Target Field following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have covered the run line in six of their last seven games as home favorites against American League opponents following a home loss.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Christian Vazquez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Red Sox.
• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in two of his last three home appearances against the Red Sox.
• Ryan Jeffers has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against the Red Sox.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last four night games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Twins’ last six games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Twins vs Red Sox Prediction

I’m leaning towards the Twins here. I get the case to be made for either side in this game, but I’m just not a fan of Richard Fitts in this Red Sox rotation. Likewise, I think there could be a bit of a hangover for Boston after taking two of three from the mighty Dodgers. Minnesota’s in desperation mode right now, at risk of falling out of favor in the AL playoff race, but there’s a chance to make up a bit of ground given the struggles of the Detroit Tigers at the top. I think Minnesota starts with a win here. Give me the Twins.