Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction 5/3/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 3, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks (17-15, 9-7 Away) lost three consecutive series to the Cubs, Rays, and Braves, but managed to beat the Mets in two of three games on the road. The Diamondbacks couldn’t make it three straight as they fell short to the Phillies in a 3-2 loss in Game 1 of the current series. Merrill Kelly pitched for 5.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing one run on four hits with two strikeouts and no walks. Jose Castillo took the loss.

This year, the Diamondbacks average 5.19 runs per game (4th in the MLB) on a .245/.331/.438 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Diamondbacks’ staff has a 4.39 ERA (24th) and 1.28 WHIP (15th). Geraldo Perdomo leads the Diamondbacks with a .277 batting average, five home runs, and 26 RBI this season.

Brandon Pfaadt will take the mound for the Diamondbacks on Saturday. The 26-year-old right-hander has a 5-1 record in six starts this year with a 2.78 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 35.2 innings.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies (18-14, 12-5 Home) were on a four-game winning streak but couldn’t make it five in a row after losing Game 3 of the series against the Nationals. Still, the Phillies won the series against the Cubs and Nats and then opened this series against the D-backs with a 3-2 win. Kyle Schwarber led the team with two RBI, while Jesus Luzardo pitched 5.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs on nine hits with six strikeouts and one walk. Tanner Banks was credited with the win.

This season, the Phillies average 4.52 runs per game (13th in the MLB) on a .251/.335/.384 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Phillies’ staff has a 3.90 ERA (14th) and 1.30 WHIP (19th). Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with a .250 batting average, ten home runs, and 25 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Phillies is Aaron Nola, who is 0-5 in six starts this season, with a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 35.0 innings.

Why the Diamondbacks will beat the Phillies

• The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games.
• The road team has covered the run line in five of the Phillies’ last six games.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Phillies’ last 12 home games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last eight Saturday night games against NL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight Saturday games against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Phillies are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (130).
• The Diamondbacks rank 4th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.435).

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction

The Diamondbacks won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including three of the last four. Brandon Pfaadt has been impressive recently; he allowed just four runs in the last four starts. Three of those four were quality starts, and I am backing Pfaadt to display another commanding performance here and last for at least 6.0 innings. Pfaadt allowed a .152 BA in 33 at-bats against the Phillies. Aaron Nola, on the other hand, is having the weakest season of his career so far; he allowed multiple runs in five of his six starts. He allowed a .248 BA in 113 at-bats against the Diamondbacks in his career. I am giving a slight advantage to the visitors, so I am backing them to win.