Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction 3/28/25 MLB Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers meet on Friday in MLB action from Globe Life Field. This will be the second installment in a four-game weekend series. Here’s a Rangers vs Red Sox prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Rangers vs Red Sox pick.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Last year, the Red Sox were looking good at the All-Star break. Boston was 53-43 and in playoff position at the halfway point in 2024, but they were hit by second-half struggles and ultimately finished at .500 overall. The Sox’ 81-81 overall record put them in third place among the American League East.

In the opener of this series—and the season—versus the Rangers on Thursday, Boston faced a 2-2 tie on the scoreboard heading into the ninth inning. The Red Sox scored three runs in that frame, however, eventually taking the victory 5-2. Boston notched six team hits along the way, with three of them coming off the bat of Wilyer Abreu. He would finish with the three hits, three runs, four RBI, two homers, and a walk in a 3-for-3 opener. Also contributing knocks were Jarren Duran, Kristian Campbell, and Connor Wong. Trevor Story and David Hamilton each scored a run as well. Starting pitcher Garrett Crochet logged 5.0 innings with two earned on five this and two walks alongside four strikeouts.

As a starter for Friday’s game two, the Red Sox will send out Tanner Houck. This spring, Houck went 0-1 with an 11.20 ERA in four starts. He managed to strike out seven batters in 13.2 innings total. Houck posted a 9-10 overall record last season in 30 starts, notching a 3.12 ERA in 178.2 innings total. Over his career in the regular season, Houck is 24-29 with a 3.55 ERA in 104 games (71 starts). He’s got nine saves in that time as well. The Red Sox will take on the Orioles after this series.

Texas Rangers Betting Preview

Over on the Rangers’ side, they took a step backward in 2024, notching a 78-84 overall record. It was a far cry from Texas’s 90-72 World Series championship run the season before, leaving Texas in third place among the American League West and out of the postseason.

In Thursday’s opener, Texas had a brief 2-1 lead on the way to seven team hits in the defeat. The Rangers got two hits from Josh Jung and a 2-for-3 day with two hits, one run, and one RBI off Kevin Pillar. Kyle Higashioka added one hit with an RBI, while Wyatt Langford had a hit and a walk in a 1-for-3 outing. Starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi did a decent job on 6.0 innings, two earned, three hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts.

In the starting pitcher role on Friday, the Rangers are going with Jack Leiter. In Spring Training this year, Leiter posted a 1-0 record with a 3.48 ERA in six games (three starts). He managed 21 Ks in 20.1 innings total. Over the course of last season (his rookie campaign), Leiter managed an 0-3 record with an 8.83 ERA in nine games (six starts), striking out 31 batters over 35.2 frames. The Rangers will face the Reds and Rays following this series.

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last three games as favorites following a road win.
• The Rangers have won three of their last four games as home underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Rangers following a road win.
• The Rangers have covered the run line in each of their last five games against the Red Sox following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last nine games as road favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Rangers have lost each of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Friday night home games.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six Friday games against the Rangers.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 night games against AL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Rangers’ last seven night games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Rangers’ last six home games.

Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction

I’m going to lean toward Boston. The Sox will want to see Houck get off to a good start in this one and eventually post a winning record by season’s end. Houck was close last year at 9-10, but he’s only had one winning campaign (5-4 over 32 games and four starts in 2022) across the last four tries. The potential for double-digit victories is there, though, and potentially getting a W here would be a great start for Houck. It’ll be interesting to see what Leiter can do on the other side as well, following a solid effort this spring.

In any case, Boston got a huge (and much-needed) effort from Abreu in the Thursday opener. I’d like to see the Sox’s other bats get in on the action Friday.