Miami Heat (48-40) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (59-27)
April 26, 2023 9:30 pm EDT
The Line: Milwaukee Bucks -11.5; Over/Under: +220
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks duke it out at the Fiserv Forum in Game 5 on Wednesday night.
The Miami Heat came into the series as underdogs, but they moved into firm favorites after outlasting the Bucks by 119-114 in Game 4 on Monday to take a 3-1 series lead. Jimmy Butler led the team with a career-high 56 points on 19 of 28 shooting, Bam Adebayo added 15 points with eight rebounds while Gabe Vincent chipped in with 10 points and eight assists. As a team, the Heat shot 49 percent from the field and 13 of 32 from the 3-point line as they struggled to contain the Bucks early on and they fell behind by as many as 15 points, before they exploded for 41 points in the fourth quarter to pull off the shocking win thanks to Butler who barely missed on his way to 56 points.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks might still be scratching their heads in this one after dropping a game they should’ve won on Monday. Brook Lopez led the team in scoring with 36 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks, Giannis Antetokounmpo added a triple-double of 26 points with 10 rebounds and 13 assists while Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday scored 14 points apiece. As a team, the Bucks shot 43 percent from the field and 13 of 40 from the 3-point line as they outscored the Heat in the first three quarters to build a 15-point lead, only to get burned in the fourth quarter thanks to a vintage performance from Jimmy Butler.
Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
Head to head, the over is 6-0 in the last six meetings overall, the Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee and the Heat are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall.
The Heat were able to stun the Bucks in Game 4 on Monday thanks to a career scoring night from Jimmy Butler, but the Bucks are now playing for their lives, so expect to see them take their best shots in this one. The Heat have had the better of the Bucks in this series so far, but the Heat are only 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games overall. The line is almost enough to scare me off the Bucks, but with what is at stake here, I can’t see anything but a bounce-back game from the Bucks to keep the series alive.
