Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Picks, Odds, Predictions 10/21/21

The Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks meet Thursday in NBA action at the State Farm Arena. The Dallas Mavericks are coming off back-to-back playoff trips and will now begin the Jason Kidd coaching era. The Atlanta Hawks are coming off an Eastern Conference Finals trip and hope to build on that in the first full season under coach Nate McMillan.

The Dallas Mavericks won’t have Rick Carlisle around for the first time since the 2007-08 season. The Mavs also strengthened the overall depth of their roster with the additions of Reggie Bullock, Sterling Brown, Moses Brown and Frank Ntilikina. Of course, the Mavs will go as far as Luka Doncic leads, as he’s one of the top players in the world and only 22 years old. Tim Hardaway Jr. is coming off possibly the best year of his career and a healthy Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber would certainly help the front court. The biggest question mark for the Mavericks is Kristaps Porzingis, as he’s had injury and consistency issues the last three seasons. The Mavericks’ ceiling is determined by which Porzingis they get this season, as they can make a deep playoff run if he returns to all-star level.

The Atlanta Hawks didn’t make a ton of moves this off season outside of signing Gorgui Deng, trading for Delon Wright and drafting Jalen Johnson. The main focus for the Hawks was keeping their young core together of Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic. That starting five has proven it can go deep into the playoffs, and the Hawks shouldn’t be afraid of anybody entering this season. A healthy Cam Reddish makes the Hawks that much stronger, and a full season of Danilo Gallinari wouldn’t hurt either. The only issue is the Hawks aren’t surprising anybody this season, so they enter this year with a bit of a target on their back.

The Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Hawks are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The over is 8-2 in Mavericks last 10 road games. The under is 15-6 in Hawks last 21 overall. The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Atlanta and 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

I love the Mavericks in the underdog role, and it’s hard to turn down free points with Luka leading the way. However, the Mavs do have a new coach they have to adjust to, and they still have depth concerns. The Atlanta Hawks are pretty much the same team they were a season ago and have health on their side as well entering the season. There’s just fewer questions around the Hawks, and they’re easier to trust overall. Hawks were also covering machines at home last year. I’ll lay the bucket.