Phoenix Suns (49-38) vs. Denver Nuggets (57-30)
April 29, 2023 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Denver Nuggets -2.5; Over/Under: 226
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The Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets meet Saturday in Game 1 of the NBA West Semifinal Playoffs at the Ball Arena. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.
The Phoenix Suns are averaging 122 points on 51.5 percent shooting and allowing 115.6 points on 46 percent shooting. Devin Booker is averaging 37.2 points and 6.4 assists, while Kevin Durant is averaging 28.4 points and 7.6 rebounds. Deandre Ayton is the third double-digit scorer and Chris Paul is grabbing 6 rebounds. The Phoenix Suns are shooting 40.7 percent from beyond the arc and 80.6 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Suns are allowing 36.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 42.8 rebounds per game.
The Denver Nuggets are averaging 114.2 points on 48.1 percent shooting and allowing 105.4 points on 45.8 percent shooting. Jamal Murray is averaging 27.2 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.2 points and 12.4 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. is the third double-digit scorer and Aaron Gordon is grabbing 7 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc and 78.9 percent from the free throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 34.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.8 rebounds per game.
The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinals games. The over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 overall. The over is 3-0-1 in Nuggets last 4 overall. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver.
The home team won all 4 meetings this season between the Nuggets and Suns, and the Nuggets covered 3 of those games. The Nuggets were the best home team in the league this season, where they win by an average of 10 points and shoot 51.1 percent from the field. The Nuggets are also 28-16 ATS at home. So, while the Suns talent as underdogs is hard to pass up, the Nuggets at home have been too consistent to bet against, especially with small chalk. I’ll lay the bucket until we get a better feel for this series.
