Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0) vs. Dallas Mavericks (1-2)
October 27, 2025 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Dallas Mavericks +7.5; Over/Under:
(Get latest betting odds)
The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Dallas Mavericks collide at the American Airlines Center on Monday night. Here’s a Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Mavericks vs Thunder Pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the ground running this season as they are now gunning for a fourth straight victory after making light work of the Hawks in a 117-100 road win on Saturday night. Chet Holmgren led the team in scoring with 31 points, 11 rebounds, and three steals on eight of 12 shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continued his hot form with 30 points, five rebounds, and five assists on 12 of 17 shooting. Isaiah Hartenstein and Ajay Mitchell each scored 14 points.
As a team, the Thunder shot 46 percent from the field and 14 of 37 from the 3-point line as they poured in 60 points in the first half to take a narrow lead into halftime. Before they dominated the third quarter by 39-25 to push the margin out to 24 points at one stage, which allowed them to rest their starters early.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks suffered two poor defeats to start their season, but they will be feeling much better after last night’s 139-129 home win over the Raptors. Anthony Davis led the team with 25 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, and three steals on 11 of 14 shooting. D’Angelo Russell added 24 points with six assists off the bench. Cooper Flagg contributed 22 points on eight of 14 shooting, while PJ Washington and Max Christie each scored 17 points.
As a team, the Mavericks shot a sizzling 58 percent from the field and 10 of 26 from the 3-point line as they trailed by two points going into halftime. Before they dominated the third quarter by 39-25 to take a 16-point lead, which was more than enough to secure their first win of the season.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Mavericks have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Thunder.
- The Thunder have lost each of their last three games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents following a win.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven road games against Western Conference opponents.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as home underdogs against the Thunder.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 27 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Mavericks have lost each of their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
- Twelve of the Mavericks’ last 13 games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Thunder’s last eight Monday games have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mavericks rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (67.9%).
- The Mavericks rank 30th in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (27.0).
- The Thunder rank T1st in the league for turnovers per game this season (13.0).
- Three different Thunder players have scored 25+ points in a game this season – equal-most in the league.
Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction
The Thunder have ruled out Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe with Chet Holmgren listed as questionable due to back soreness, while the Mavericks are again missing Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum and Daniel Gafford.
The Mavericks played well to earn the much-needed win over the Raptors last night in a high-scoring contest with almost no defense, but it’s going to be tough to replicate that effort against the defense of the Thunder. The line for this one might shift a bit if Holmgren isn’t able to suit up. But as it stands, I think the line is short enough for me to stick with the more reliable Thunder to get the job done on the road in this one.
