Dallas Mavericks (23-45) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (22-46)
March 16, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: New Orleans Pelicans -8.5; Over/Under: 237.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Dallas Mavericks and the New Orleans Pelicans duke it out at the Smoothie King Center on Monday night. Here’s a Pelicans vs. Mavericks prediction. This article will include a Pelicans vs. Mavericks pick.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks look to have moved on from their ugly eight-game slide, as they have now won two of their past three games after taking down the Cavaliers in a stunning 130-120 upset last night. Cooper Flagg led the team with 27 points, six rebounds and 10 assists on 10 of 17 shooting; Naji Marshall added 25 points with seven assists, while PJ Washington tallied 20 points with 11 rebounds and five steals. As a team, the Mavericks shot 53 percent from the field and 15 of 30 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 35 points in the first quarter to jump out in front, but the Mavericks didn’t get any separation until the third quarter, where they exploded for 40 points to open up a 21-point lead and secure the win. Khris Middleton had a quiet game of just five points on two of nine shooting off the bench.
New Orleans Pelicans Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have been on a nice run lately, as they’ve won seven of their last 11 games overall, but they will be hoping to bounce back here after having their two-game win streak snapped by the Rockets in a 107-105 road defeat on Friday. Dejounte Murray led the team with 35 points, seven rebounds and four assists on 14 of 18 shooting; Zion Williamson added 21 points on seven of 10 shooting, while Trey Murphy chipped in with 14 points and seven assists. As a team, the Pelicans shot 44 percent from the field and 13 of 32 from the 3-point line as they clawed their way back from an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter before the Rockets responded with a crucial 7-0 run to reclaim the lead for good.
Why the New Orleans Pelicans will win
- The Mavericks have lost each of their last 16 road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Pelicans have won each of their last seven games as home favorites against Western Conference opponents.
- The Pelicans have covered the spread in each of their last eight games against Southwest Division opponents.
- The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight road games on the second leg of a back-to-back after winning as underdogs.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The underdogs have won five of the Pelicans’ last six games at Smoothie King Center.
- The Pelicans have lost nine of their last 10 games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in five of the Pelicans’ last six games at Smoothie King Center.
- The Pelicans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of the Pelicans’ last nine home games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Mavericks’ last nine night games have gone UNDER the total points line.
New Orleans Pelicans Player Facts
- Zion Williamson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points in the paint per game (15.7) this season.
- Herb Jones is one of only two players in the league to have recorded 8+ steals in a game this season.
Dallas Mavericks Player Facts
- P.J. Washington is one of only seven qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 three, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block this season.
- Cooper Flagg is one of only eight players in the league to have recorded 30+ points and 10+ rebounds in consecutive games this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Pelicans have recorded the largest comeback win from an HT deficit this season—trailing by 22 points vs. the Rockets on December 18.
- The Pelicans rank 1st for points in the paint (3904) this season.
- The Mavericks rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point percentage this season (34.3%).
- The Mavericks rank 30th in the league for opponent field goals made per game this season (44.4).
Pelicans vs Mavericks Prediction
The Mavericks are still keeping an eye on Klay Thompson and Daniel Gafford, who are both listed as day-to-day, while the Pelicans have ruled out Bryce McGowens, with Dejounte Murray listed as questionable. These teams have already met three times this season, with the Pelicans leading the series by 2-1 but they’ve all been tight, with each game decided by six points or less. The Mavericks were ice-cold before their impressive upset win over the Cavaliers last night, but it’s going to be tough to back that up on zero days’ rest against a Pelicans team that was playing great before they lost by two points to the Rockets on Friday. This should be another close contest, so I am predicting the Pelicans to get the win at home, but something tells me the Mavericks do enough again to take it down to the wire.
