Texans vs Chiefs Prediction 12/7/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Texans vs Chiefs Prediction for this NFL Week 13 game on Sunday, December 7^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs have a 6-6 record this season and are sitting third in the AFC West. They are 5-7 ATS, 4-8 in Over/Under and have a 5-1 home record and a 1-5 away record. The Chiefs are coming off a 28-31 away loss against the Dallas Cowboys and will face the Chargers, Titans and Broncos next.

Offensively, the Chiefs average 25.4 points per game, ranking 9th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 19.3 points per game, which is 7th. Kansas City averages 374.8 total yards per game (256.5 passing and 118.3 rushing), while allowing 306.7 total yards per game (100.9 rushing and 205.8 passing).

Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs with 3238 passing yards with 64.6% completed passes and 22 touchdowns. Kareem Hunt leads the team in rushing yards with 515, while Travis Kelce has a team-high 59 receptions for 719 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Defensively, Nick Bolton has a team-high 100 total tackles (48 of them solo), while George Karlaftis III leads the team in sacks, with 5.

Houston Texans Preview

The Houston Texans have a 7-5 record this season and are sitting third in the AFC South. They are 6-6 ATS, 3-8-1 in Over/Under and have a 4-2 home record and a 3-3 away record. The Texans are coming off a 20-16 away win against the Indianapolis Colts and will face the Cardinals, Raiders and Chargers next.

Offensively, the Texans average 21.9 points per game, ranking 21st in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 16.5 points per game, which is 1st. Houston averages 326.8 total yards per game (219.1 passing and 107.7 rushing), while allowing 265.7 total yards per game (91.7 rushing and 174 passing).

C.J. Stroud leads the Texans with 1978 passing yards with 66.1% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Woody Marks leads the team in rushing yards with 486, while Nico Collins has a team-high 57 receptions for 795 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Defensively, Azeez Al-Shaair has a team-high 79 total tackles (38 of them solo), while Danielle Hunter leads the team in sacks, with 11.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends: Week 14

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 16 home games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Texans have lost each of their last seven Week 14 games.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The home team has covered the spread in eight of the Chiefs’ last nine games.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in 11 of their last 12 Week 14 games.
• The Chiefs have won the first quarter in each of their last five games in December.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games as home favorites.

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The Texans have won each of their last seven games following a Division game.
• The Chiefs have lost four of their last five games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games without Isiah Pacheco.
• The Texans have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs without Derek Stingley Jr..
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in each of their last two games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• The Texans have won the first quarter in five of their last six Sunday games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last eight games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Texans’ last four games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the last five Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last eight appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last seven regular season home games against AFC opponents.
• Isiah Pacheco has recorded 31+ rushing yards in each of his last 22 Sunday regular season appearances with the Chiefs as favorites.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 250+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last nine games.
• Isiah Pacheco has recorded 49+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 Sunday regular season appearances with the Chiefs as home favorites.
• Noah Gray has recorded 10+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last eight regular season games as home favorites.
• Heading into Week 14, Patrick Mahomes ranks T1st in the league for pass attempts inside the 20 (81) this season.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Nico Collins has scored a touchdown in each of the Texans’ last five regular season road games against AFC opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 24+ rushing yards in 69 of his last 73 Sunday regular season appearances.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 229+ passing yards in each of his last five appearances with the Texans as underdogs following a win.
• Christian Kirk has recorded 26+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 41+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 19 December appearances.
• Davis Mills has recorded 22+ completions in four of his last five appearances as a starter.
• Heading into Week 14, Calen Bullock has recorded the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (2 vs Bills, Week 12).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 14, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (80.8%) this season.
• Heading into Week 14, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (27.8%) this season.
• Heading into Week 14, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game (16.5) this season.
• Heading into Week 14, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (265.7) this season.

Texans vs Chiefs Prediction

In this Texans vs Chiefs Prediction, the Chiefs are coming as -3-point home favorites. Both teams have almost identical overall records this season, with the Texans having one win more than the Chiefs, who on the other hand, have been almost perfect at home, with a 5-1 record. The Chiefs are just 1-3 in their last 4 games and 0-4 against the spread, while on the flip side, the Texans have four consecutive wins. I see no value on either side, but both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games lately, going for 9-1 to the under in their last 10 games combined, as they have both elite defenses, holding their opponents into just 35.8 points per game combined. With the total set at 42 points for this game, I will go under that number.