The Miami Dolphins and the Washington Commanders meet Sunday in NFL action from FedEx Field. Miami is 8-3 overall after winning consecutive games, most recently versus the rival Jets. As for Washington, they’re coming off a blowout loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving that dropped the team to 4-8 on the year. Here’s a Dolphins vs Commanders Prediction.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have had a few lows this year but generally they’re playing well with a 30.8 points per game average. Miami has gotten 285.3 yards per game through the air with 23 pass scores and 11 picks. On the ground the Dolphins average 145.2 yards per game with 19 scores. The defense is allowing 22.8 points per game this year with 16 TDs through the air and nine on the ground. 

The Dolphins were able to notch another victory last Friday versus the hapless Jets. Miami was up 17-6 by halftime and held New York to just seven more points in a 34-13 blowout road win. QB Too Tagovailoa led the team on 243 yards, one TD and two picks. Raheem Mostert ran for 94 yards and a pair of scores, while Jaylen Waddle caught eight balls for 114 yards. 

Miami Dolphins Team Facts

• The home team has won each of the Dolphins’ last eight Week 13 games.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Sunday games as favorites.
• The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• Seven of the Dolphins’ last eight road games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.

Washington Commanders 

Over on the Washington side, they’ve been struggling on both sides of the ball this year. The Commanders average 20.5 points per game with 247.0 yards on average, 18 TDs and 13 interceptions coming via the pass. Rush-wise Washington has 96.8 yards per game with nine touchdowns. Washington’s Achilles heel on defense is the pass, where they’re giving up 264.6 yards per game and 28 touchdowns so far. 

The Commanders posted another rough performance in their last matchup versus the rival Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Washington was within 10 points going into the final quarter, then imploded in a 45-10 loss. QB Sam Howell posted 300 yards with one interception, while Brian Robinson posted 53 rush yards. Curtis Samuel added nine catches for an even 100 yards. 

Washington Commanders Team Facts

• The Commanders have lost each of their last eight home games in December.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games in December.
• The Commanders have won the first half in three of their last four games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the Commanders’ last five games.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five Sunday games as underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Commanders rank 32nd in the NFL in points allowed per game this season (29.2).
• The Commanders rank 32nd in the NFL in Q4 opponent points per game this season (11.3).
• The Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in yards per game this season (430.5).
• The Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game this season (285.3).

ANDREW’S FREE COMMANDERS VS DOLPHINS PREDICTION 

I’ll stay with Miami. The Dolphins didn’t have much trouble against the Jets in their last outing, posting 395 yards (228 passing), 22 first downs and a nice 11-of-16 rate on third downs. The three turnovers were just about the only glaring issue. Miami has now won consecutive games after a 1-2 stretch against some pretty stiff competition. 

As for the Commanders, they gave up 431 yards (331 passing) and 8.6 yards per play in their latest loss to the Cowboys. Washington has lost five of their last six games (including three in a row) and they seem to already be simply playing out the schedule. Washington has just 29 combined points in their last two games, and I don’t think they’ll make a ton of noise here either.