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Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 4-11-24 Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates (9-3) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (5-6)
April 11, 2024 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -154 / Pittsburgh Pirates +141; Over/Under: +9
(Get latest betting odds)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Pirates vs Phillies prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game. We will examine:

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates recent form and player performance
  • The Philadelphia Phillies recent form and player performance
  • Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Philadelphia Phillies
  • Recent betting trends in games played between the Pirates and Phillies
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Pirates vs Phillies game

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pirates played a pair of games versus the Detroit Tigers this week. Pittsburgh took Monday’s matchup 7-4, but then fell 5-3 in game two for a split series. The Pirates’ Edward Olivares had a good game in the defeat, notching a pair of solo homers. Ke’Bryan Hayes added two hits and an RBI.

In the starting pitcher role for game one of the Phillies series, it’ll be Pittsburgh’s Jared Jones. In his first two starts this year (the first two of his MLB career), Jones is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. He’s got 17 Ks in 11.2 total innings.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Over on the Phillies’ side, they took on the St. Louis Cardinals in their last set. Philadelphia won Monday 5-3 before a 3-0 loss in game two. In the Wednesday rubber match, Philadelphia eked out a 4-3 victory with eight team hits. Aaron Nola managed 6.0 innings in the start, with two earned on three hits and three walks.

In the starter gig for the Thursday game, the Phillies are going with Ranger Suarez. In his two starts so far this year Suarez is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA and 11 Ks in 11.0 innings. Suarez has a career record of 30-21 with a 3.43 ERA in 136 games (68 starts). The Phillies will meet the Rockies, White Sox, and Reds following this series.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Facts

  • The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
  • The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four night games.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

  • The Pirates have won each of their last four games as road underdogs.
  • The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games following a loss.
  • The Pirates have led after 7 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last three games as underdogs.

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

I’ll take a stab on the Pirates here. Pittsburgh has gotten a couple of pretty good starts out of Jones so far this year. He posted 5.2 innings with three earned versus Miami in his debut, then took a loss versus the Orioles with 6.0 innings and two earned runs. A quality start would set the Pirates up pretty well, so long as Hayes and the gang can get the bats going.

As for Philadelphia, on Wednesday they got RBI from Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos in a pretty well-rounded offensive outing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Philly post another solid appearance on Thursday but in the end I think the Pirates have a good chance to power out a victory.

Andrew's Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +141

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Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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