San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
May 8, 2026 9:30 pm EDT
The Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5; Over/Under: 215.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The San Antonio Spurs invade the Target Center to battle the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3 of the West Semifinals on Friday night. Here’s a Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction. This article will include a Timberwolves vs. Spurs Pick.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview
The San Antonio Spurs needed to respond after falling painfully short to the Timberwolves in the series opener and that’s exactly what they did as they dominated the Timberwolves and won by 133-95 in Game 2 on Wednesday. Stephon Castle led the team with 21 points on six of 10 shooting, Victor Wembanyama added 19 points with 15 rebounds and two blocks, while De’Aaron Fox chipped in with 16 points. As a team, the Spurs shot 50 percent from the field and 16 of 39 from the 3-point line, but this win was set up by their defense as they put the clamps on right from the start and were never in danger after restricting the Timberwolves to just 35 points in the first half. The Spurs showed no mercy even after taking a 24-point lead at halftime as they kept their foot on the gas pedal to push the margin out to 47 points at one stage.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves were good enough to steal home-court advantage in the series opener but are now going back to the drawing board after getting humbled by the Spurs in a demoralizing defeat in Game 2 on Wednesday. Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards and Terrence Shannon Jr. each scored 12 points, while Naz Reid scored 11 points, but no other player scored more than eight points. As a team, the Timberwolves shot a miserly 40 percent from the field and nine of 30 from the 3-point line as they failed to keep pace with the Spurs from the start and never even threatened a comeback after scoring just 35 points in the first half. The Timberwolves were sloppy with the ball as they committed 22 turnovers and they shot just 16 of 31 from the free throw line.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Timberwolves have won each of their last seven home games against the Spurs.
- The Spurs have lost each of their last six road games against Timberwolves teams that held a winning record.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in each of their last seven playoff home games.
- The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Western Conference Semifinals games against Northwest Division opponents.
Why the San Antonio Spurs will win
- The Spurs have won 12 of their last 13 road games against Western Conference opponents.
- The Timberwolves have lost each of their last four playoff home games against Southwest Division opponents.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four playoff home games against Southwest Division opponents.
- The Spurs have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
Total Points Facts
- Six of the Timberwolves’ last seven home games against Southwest Division opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Spurs’ last six playoff games as road favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Rudy Gobert ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (68.2%) this season.
- Jaden McDaniels is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 three, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block this season.
San Antonio Spurs Player Facts
- Victor Wembanyama ranks 1st amongst qualified players for blocks per game (3.1) this season.
- Stephon Castle is one of only five players to have recorded a 40+ point triple-double this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (12.1).
- The Timberwolves have used only 14 different starting fives this season—the fewest in the league.
- The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.9).
- The Spurs rank 1st in the league for H1 points per game this season (62.2).
Timberwolves vs Spurs Prediction
The Spurs are still without David Jones Garcia, while the Timberwolves have ruled out Donte DiVincenzo, with Ayo Dosunmu and Anthony Edwards listed as game-time decisions but likely to play. The Spurs will be annoyed that they dropped the series opener, but it certainly looked like they got out their frustrations in a dominant Game 2 victory, so the pressure is now on the Timberwolves to bounce back and avoid falling behind in the series. The Timberwolves probably won’t stress about their massive defeat in Game 2 because it’s just so out of character for them and they still hold home-court advantage after all. The Timberwolves’ role players should perform better back in their own building, but I still don’t think it will be enough to hold off the Spurs, who are just capable of going on those lengthy runs. With the line so short, give me the Spurs to take the series lead with a narrow win and cover in this spot.
